"I'm just no damn good am I baby, I'm just no damn good, I know its true"

Turns out I am no damn good at both gambling and math. My first crack at wildly guessing about how NFL teams will fare against the spread failed terribly, with a 4-6-1 record last week. I nearly gave it up but my greatest quality is that I am truly delusional about my talents. I'm better than .571 winning percentage and I aim to prove it! Here are the picks with limited commentary, because its only a couple hours until kickoff.

-Tennessee (-3) over Houston: Just like last week, no Andre Johnson, no Super Mario, no cover.

-Tampa Bay (-1) over Chicago: Chicago has no offensive line. Tampa Bay has a young, angry pass rush. London's going to get to see the Cutlerface. I can feel it.

-Detroit (-3.5) over Atlanta: A good team giving 3.5 to an average team at home. Feels like it could go either way but I'd prefer the Falcons to lose.

-Denver (+1.5) over Miami: How is Miami GIVING points? For Jeebus sake, they had to basically throw Tim Tebow Day at their own stadium to get people to show up. That's a bad team.

-Carolina (-3) over Washington: Are you betting on John Beck? No thanks.

-Cleveland (-3) over Seattle: Eh...

-San Diego (-2.5) over NY Jets: I like Rex Ryan. He's fat and funny and a great character. His team just isn't any good this year.

-Kansas City (+5.5) over the Raiders: I so very badly wanted Carson Palmer to start this game so I could be absolutely certain of this pick. But he's not, Kyle Boller is....and I'm still pretty certain of this pick.

-Pittsburgh (-4) over Arizona: This seems like a dumb line. Arizona's home field is really enough to make up for being a bad team with a bad quarter back, against a good defense?

-St. Louis (+14) over Dallas: Two TDs is a lot. Also, I'd rather watch a World Series game between these two cities than this crap sandwich of a football game.

-Green Bay (-9.5) over Minnesota: Best team in the league vs. a rookie QB.

-New Orleans (-14) over Indy: As mentioned above, two TDs is a lot. I'm not sure how many would be enough for me to pick Indy in any game.

-Baltimore (-8) over Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert is going to enjoy living in LA. He's already got the hair for it.

"Deal the cards and it won't matter how they fall, because nothing is a gamble when you want it all..."

As I was wasting time at work today by reading various NFL picks columns it occured to me that if there is one thing I love more than griping about my employer or reflecting on my mortality (sorry about that by the way) it's gamblin'! I needed something to write about and I can make inaccurate predictions as well as any jerk off blogger or highly paid sports journalist. I'll try and do this every week if I remember or don't get otherwise distracted, but in the meantime here are your lead pipe lock Week 6 NFL winners.

-Detroit (-4) over San Francisco: San Fran is feisty, but Detroit is good. Frank Gore will not be able to carve up the Lions defense the way he did Tampa Bay last week and the 49ers have no answer for Megatron. Even if you throw those two variables out, are you taking Alex Smith on the road in raucous stadium against Suh and his boys? Nope.

-Cincinnati (-7) over Indianapolis: Cincy is a young team on the upswing that still isn't good enough to beat a quality opponent. Fortunately for them the Colts are not a quality opponent. They are in full on "Suck for Luck" mode and Curtis Painter is junk.

-Buffalo (+3) over NY Giants: The Giants defense can't stop anyone from doing anything. Elisha is still their QB and the Bills have a penchant for winning games they shouldn't by capitalizing on dumb QB mistakes. Plus its two New York teams so who cares. Moving on.

-Washington (-1.5) over Philadelphia: Philly's defense couldn't stop Rex Ryan from throwing on them, much less Rex Grossman, a real By God average NFL QB. And while as thrilling as ever, Ron Mexico is still as overrated as he was before he killed all those dogs and went to jail.

-Pittsburgh (-12) over Jacksonville: I don't even know what to say. Jacksonville already has one foot in LA and a shaky (I was raised to be polite) QB. Their only hope week to week is for MJD to go off. He won't be able to do that against the Steelers. Boring.

-St. Louis (+14.5) over Green Bay: The packers are the best team in football right now and the Rams are terrible, which is always enjoyable. But 14.5 seems very generous for any game involving two professional teams. Just a hunch but the Rams cover.

-Carolina (+3.5) over Atlanta: At some point the TV "experts" will realize that the Falcons winning 13 games last year has absolutely no correlation to this season and that they are actually quite shitty. Cam Newton finds a way to cover if not win out right.

-Baltimore (-7) over Houston: No Mario Williams. No Andre Johnson. No chance against the Ravens. Houston feels like it has already resigned itself to another 8-8, miss the playoffs season.

-Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland: Cleveland has been game this season but Oakland is (and no one has uttered these words in a long time) fundamentally sound. They tackle well, block well, run the ball and don't make a ton of mistakes. Barring some kind of "post Al Davis emotional win" hangover, they should roll at home against the Browns.

-New England (-7) over Dallas: I know New England can't play defense and at some point that will cost them, but it won't be this week. I just can't get past Brady at home vs. Romo.

-Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans: I recuse myself. But I sure wish Punchy and GMC were playing.

-Minnesota (+3) over Chicago: Blah. I wouldn't watch this game if it was the last NFL game ever. But Minny has a good pass rush and Jay Cutler tends to get his grumpy pants in a twist when he gets hit (last week excluded). So I'm going Vikings to cover.

-NY Jets (-7) over Miami: Even with the Derrick Mason trade, reported dissention in the locker room, no ability whatsoever to run the ball, and Sanchez being Sanchez, there's just no way Matt Moore and "On The Hot Seat" Sparano have a chance.

All of these things are absolutely going to happen. If you don't wager large sums of money on them then you are dumb.**

**GF is not responsibly for any monetary losses on your part.

"Let's not let times build the flood rise, Before my thoughts begin to run, I think I'm getting older now"

More than the other 5 Guys, I tend to struggle with the concept of aging, mainly my own. Others will joke about their rapidly graying hair or note, with a wry a smile, that getting older "is better than the alternative". To which my inevitable response is "THAT SHIT AIN'T FUNNY".
Comments along these lines unnerve me to no end. They make me feel as if losing a step is inevitable, and maybe it is, but I refuse to concede the point. I would love to be more mature and age gracefully, but I'm not and I won't. I very much enjoy life and want to keep the party going for as long as possible. Incidentally, it's this attitude that prevents me from doing almost anything in moderation.

I only bring this up because Steve Jobs, Al Davis, and Roger Williams, each a titan of their respective fields, passed away this week. While I am not a techie, a Raiders fan, or a classical music aficionado I can appreciate as much as anyone what these men accomplished while noting the obvious: If death can get them, it'll get us all (Duh, GF!).

Mrs. GF and I visited our home state of Florida last week. We attended the wedding of friends, saw family, spent time at the beach, and drank some beers with friends. Living 2,000 miles away I often get nostalgic for these things and wish I could be around for more of them. But whether in The D or The T, sunshine or snow, with friends or not, I will make the most of every day. There's only so many of them.

Apologies. I promise to make with the funny on the next one.